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| Columbo eruption dynamics forecast as of the morning of February 11. |
The world continues to monitor earthquakes in the Aegean Sea, which are becoming more and more frightening every day. Moon fortune tellers promise a big zmt already on February 11:
Another young talent, predicting by Schumann resonances, promises approximately the same thing and even names the magnitude M7.0:
On February 7, German seismologists wrote about all this , who, like all of us, can only rely on public data – far from complete by definition. Their assessment of the situation is based on the Gutenberg-Richter law, that is, a tenfold increase in the number of earthquakes with a decrease in magnitude by one point:
M.4.0+ – 85
M2.5+ – 9000
M1.5+ – 190,000
M0.0+ – 19,000,000
The basis here is very incomplete data from Greek officials, and data as of February 7. However, even all this together gives the total tectonic energy of M6.3.
In other words: if the volcano had intended to release all the excess force at once, it would have needed to shake the Aegean Sea with a force of M6.3. But the bottom turned out to be strong and the unloading is gradual. Consequently, there will be no magma breakthrough to the surface before the first M6.3.
The general conclusion of the Germans is that more money needs to be invested in geology. Now Greek seismologists are sitting somewhere in Athens and calculating the energy of the emission 24/7. There is so much work that they do not take into account anything below M4.0 - with the current number of people, it will take 108 years to calculate. And if they do not take everything into account, then they will not be able to calculate how strong it will explode and when.
USGS, which also has little faith, shows the following picture for 7 days at M4.5+:
Thus, we are talking about 30+ earthquakes around M5.0, which makes the Germans' calculations a bit meaningless. And M4.0+ there is not 85, but only under 150 according to the EMSC catalog, so the total energy is not M6.3, but much higher. It could be M7.0, or even more. In any case, we need to start preparing for a tsunami at M7.0 right now. And if the ventilation hole does not appear in the coming days, the final discharge could be more than M7.0.
VolcanoDiscovery does not show any signs of melt breaking out yet , although at a distance of 3-4 hours some dynamics towards the growth of the strength of the magma chamber in the lower magma chamber are visible. As we will explain below, this will be a good sign.
Comrade Mustafa Kılıç wrote an interesting thing today . He noted that as soon as the swarm began on Santorini, Italy became more active. At the same time, as soon as it hits Sicily or somewhere in North Africa, the tension immediately drops on Santorini, the deep ZMTs there fall in strength and frequency:
This is further evidence of our crazy theory that all is being controlled by some half-molten slab of ancient ocean. It is the size of the Mediterranean Sea and is swirling around somewhere in the upper mantle.
And on the surface the weather has played out. The winds, forecasters say, are blowing so hard that all the water has been blown away from the Turkish beaches, article for the 11th:
We will not make Vangas on the date of the first ventilation hole, since how the eruption will proceed further, probably not even aliens will say. But what can be said already now.
If the good scenario is realized, then at a QUICK M6.0 order the lower magma chamber will break through a normal passage to the upper one, where the dome will quickly be torn off and a ventilation hole will be formed, through which a gradual release of pressure will begin.
The destruction will be minimal, and M6.0 at a depth of 10 km+ will not cause a particularly strong tsunami. Santorini will suffer, where new buildings with swimming pools will slide down the slopes, after which the Greeks, like the Spartans in the good old days, will throw off the cliff the officials who gave permission for construction.
But there may also be a bad scenario - if M6.0 does not happen for a long time. Then we will have to wait for M7.0 or much more before the roof of the upper magma chamber breaks. In this case, the consequences for the entire region will be catastrophic, so we will monitor the development of events.
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