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Friedrich Merz (right), leader of Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union, reacts after the first exit polls in the German general elections were announced on February 23. |
Germans Voted for Change, Got Paralysis
By Richard Palmer • February 24, 2025
Germans gave a clear message in their election yesterday: We want change. With 84 percent turnout, the highest since the end of the Cold War, they clearly felt strongly about it.
But the elections won’t give them change. The Christian Democratic Union (cdu), led by Friedrich Merz, won the election with 28.5 percent of the vote. But it has one coalition option, which gives no room for decisive leadership.
“Friedrich Merz won it, but it will become a nightmare for him [to] govern,” wrote EuroIntelligence.
Merz may be able to further the nation’s break from America—but his election won’t bring the stability Germany craves.
Coalition Math
Ahead of the vote, only 17 percent of Germans said they were satisfied with the outgoing coalition government. The Social Democrats (spd), who used to lead the ruling coalition, received their worst results since the 19th century, winning just 16.4 percent of the vote. The Free Democrats, one of their coalition partners, did so badly they won’t be in this next parliament at all. Parties must win a minimum of 5 percent of the vote to get seats.
It’s not just people demanding change. Germany’s economy has shrunk for two years in a row. Industrial production is down 15 percent compared to pre-covid levels. Germany’s largest companies in Fortune 500 Europe announced over 60,000 job cuts.
Yet despite the vote for something new, the elections seem to give Germany more of the same.
There is only one viable coalition: a “grand” left-right coalition between the cdu and the spd.
Germany rejected the spd by the largest margin in well over 100 years—yet thanks to coalition math, it comes straight back into government.
This is the equivalent of a coalition between Republicans and Democrats in the United States. How much decisive change can they agree on? Even then, they have a majority of just 13 in a 630-seat house. A handful of rebels can destabilize anything the government wants to do.
Major change requires a two-thirds majority. Even if all the mainstream parties band together, they cannot achieve that.
A coalition with the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)—who came in second place, doubling their vote from last time—would at least offer decisive change. But some AfD leaders glorify Nazis, and the cdu ruled out working with them.
A left-right coalition has another threat. A new far-left party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (bsw) won 4.97 percent of the vote. If it can find just 0.03 percent more, it can enter parliament. That redistribution of seats would make a cdu-sdp coalition impossible.
The bsw is looking at challenging the election in the courts. Over the next few months, a court could rule an election rerun, and the coalition could fall.
Even with only one real coalition option, it could still be months before Germany has a government. Merz’s ambitious time scale is to have a government in place by Easter in seven weeks. That’s if all goes smoothly.
“The process will take weeks—probably months—leaving a vacuum in Europe’s most important country during a continent-wide crisis,” wrote journalist Andrew Neil.
“The Germans voted for change because they wanted to reverse the country’s economic decline, get a grip on its borders after too much uncontrolled immigration, rearm to deal with a revanchist Russia to its east and end the green energy obsession, which has resulted in soaring household fuel bills and decimated its once world-famous heavy industry,” wrote Neil. “Merz, who at 69 has never held ministerial office, is unlikely to be in a position to implement the radical reforms required to do any of that. Nor has he ever shown much interest in the [European Union], so that’s unlikely to get the leadership needed either.”
‘Independence From the U.S.A.’
With such an unstable coalition, Merz may only make progress on his highest priorities. He outlined this in his victory speech: “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the U.S.A.”
That’s a stunning statement for a German leader to make.
On Friday, just ahead of the vote, Merz raised the subject of Germany borrowing nuclear bombs from France and Britain. “We need to have discussions with both the British and the French—the two European nuclear powers—about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the [United Kingdom] and France, could also apply to us,” he said.
Politico noted that this “would be a huge shift in position” and “a major strategic shift for Germany.”
Both of these are themes that French President Emmanuel Macron has brought up repeatedly. “A clear trend is taking place: President Macron demands what Germany wants,” wrote Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry in 2020, after one such outburst. “I don’t believe Macron would ever say what he said unless Germany approved of it. He acts as a sort of puppet to Germany!”
“Imagine if a German chancellor gave a speech like Mr. Macron did, demanding that all Europe support Brussels’ dictates,” he wrote. “Germany wouldn’t dare make such a proposal right now! But it is definitely in Germany’s interest—and Macron is the one pushing for it!”
When France talked about a European nuclear umbrella last year, Mr. Flurry wrote: “As is often the case, the French president is saying things that Germany dares not say.”
Now Germany dares.
German politics are unstable and indecisive, but Merz already seems set to be a different leader than outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz. He wants to radically transform Germany’s military, break with America, and push Europe to be a strong, united military power. How much of that he can do with his divided coalition remains to be seen, but he’s clearly in favor of a bold military transformation.
“Germany doesn’t want to give up America’s nuclear bombs,” wrote Mr. Flurry. “But Macron’s support for Europeanizing France’s bombs gives Germany more negotiating power with America. Germany can in effect say, We don’t need your nuclear bombs; we can have France’s or develop our own bombs with French support.
“This means the U.S. has lost power over Germany’s security. What then is left for America to do other than try to uphold good relations with Germany on the latter’s terms?” This is the thinking behind Merz’s statements.
Coalition Chaos
Herbert W. Armstrong warned for years of the rise of a strong leader and a revival of the Nazi spirit in Germany.
In 1945, he forecast the rise of a new European military superpower, which would start as “a European Union.” European nations are becoming “distrustful of America and thinking more and more about uniting themselves into a united states of Europe,” he wrote in March 1950. To do that though, they needed a “new supreme leader—the successor of Adolf Hitler—to rise up and assert himself and take command.”
In the Good News magazine in May 1953, Mr. Armstrong wrote, “[I]t is probable that none but a German can provide the dynamic, inspired leadership required to organize such a political military federation.”
Even in the final year of his life in 1985, he was writing, “There is yet another leader to arise in Europe!”
Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry continued that same warning the first year the magazine was established—and every year since.
“If a real crisis develops, will the Germans call for a new führer?” he asked in the December 1991 issue. “Your Bible says that is going to happen!”
The Nazi spirit that these men warned of is here. The far-right AfD came in second place with “only” 20 percent of the vote. “We have the right to be proud of the achievements of the German soldiers in two world wars,” one of its leaders has said. Another called German attempts to commemorate and apologize for World War ii a “stupid coping policy.”
Among men ages 18 to 24, the AfD was the most popular political party, with 27 percent of the vote. For young women, Die Linke, successor to the East German Communist party, took the first spot, with 35 percent.
Clearly Germany’s youth are deeply unhappy with Germany’s direction—and they are willing to consider communism or Nazism as a way out.
“In the buildup, many Germans spoke of a Schicksalswahl—an election of fate,” wrote historian Katja Hoyer. “They weren’t exaggerating. The future of German politics seems balanced on a knife edge.”
This unstable coalition, coupled with a radical desire for change from voters, matches exactly the conditions Mr. Flurry warned would precede the rise of a strong leader.
“How this man is prophesied to come to power is utterly fascinating and frightening,” he wrote in 2002.
He continued:
He will appear on the scene in the “last end” (Daniel 8:19). Notice how he comes to power: “And in his estate shall stand up a vile person, to whom they shall not give the honour of the kingdom: but he shall come in peaceably, and obtain the kingdom by flatteries” (Daniel 11:21). Let’s not forget, this is a prophecy for the time we are living in right now.
This man doesn’t come to power the honorable way—by being voted into office. He takes it dishonorably! He will work behind the scenes and come to power by flatteries—not votes!
He warned that “some leader is going to hijack the European Union! The person who leads Germany will also lead Europe.”
“Hitler also did some behind-the-scenes manipulating to come to power,” he wrote. “That method has worked well in German history.”
Mr. Flurry soon focused on the potential for German coalition maneuvering for that strongman to come in “dishonorably” and without votes.
In a 2009 Key of David program, he said this leader could “perhaps take advantage of a weak coalition.” In 2013, he warned: “They’re not going to give him the office; he’s going to come in and win it by flatteries. Some kind of a political coalition is established, and he comes out as the winner.” In 2015, he said, “I think this strong leader will come in probably through a coalition government of some kind because it says he comes in by flatteries and not by votes.”
This has been a consistent forecast. Germany has been stuck with weak coalitions for years. It is desperate for something new. As crises intensify, how desperate will it grow for a strong leader? U.S. Vice President JD Vance warned recently that German democracy is at risk of dying. He’s right.
In 2019, Mr. Flurry warned: “Current conditions in Europe, including the refugee crisis and the turmoil in German politics, provide probably one of the greatest opportunities ever for a new leader to come into power ‘by flatteries.’ … Expect political and social crises in Germany and Europe, and public resentment and anger, to grow even deeper. Then watch for a strongman to take advantage and make his way to power through flatteries!”
These elections aren’t the end of Germany’s leadership crisis. Instead they are yet more evidence that democracy can’t bring Germany the leadership it needs. Watch for them to lead to the rise of this strong German leader. To learn more about why, and even who this leader may be, read Mr. Flurry’s article “After Trump’s Victory, Watch Germany.”
source:
https://www.thetrumpet.com/31053-germans-voted-for-change-got-paralysis.
Germans Voted for Change, Got Paralysis
